SMM Nov 12:
This week, the domestic molybdenum market accelerated its decline, with the entire molybdenum industry chain entering a downward trend. International molybdenum oxide, along with the domestic molybdenum raw material market, experienced significant drops. Stainless steel prices were under pressure, and industry profits urgently needed recovery, leading to a focus on driving down tender prices. Mainstream steel mills' tender prices continued to be lowered, with the transaction center for ferromolybdenum falling to around 230,000 yuan/mt. On Nov 12, a large steel mill in Fujian launched a tender, setting a cash price of 229,000 yuan/mt, down 27,500 yuan/mt from its Nov 4 tender price. Market wait-and-see sentiment was strong, and some steel mills, adhering to the mentality of rushing to buy amid continuous price rise and holding back amid price downturn, slowed their procurement pace.
As of today, SMM 45% molybdenum concentrate closed at 3,750-3,780 yuan/mtu, down 100 yuan/mtu from the previous trading day, and cumulative monthly decline reached 500 yuan/mtu. Since October, domestic mine operations have been stable, but coupled with weak downstream demand, mine shipments have been low, and industry invisible inventory consolidated at high levels. International molybdenum oxide and other molybdenum raw material prices continued to fall, opening the domestic import window. Imports of molybdenum concentrate and molybdenum oxide surged in September, impacting the domestic upstream molybdenum market. Meanwhile, with continuous losses in downstream ferromolybdenum and molybdenum chemical products, industry operating rates have declined for several consecutive months. The market reacted against the high-priced raw material market. At the beginning of the month, mines held back from selling in a countermove, but the market showed an inertial decline.
Today, SMM ferromolybdenum closed at 233,000-245,000 yuan/mt, down 4,000 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, with a cumulative monthly decline of 29,000 yuan/mt. Driven by steel mills' efforts to drive down prices, tender prices fell significantly. Ferromolybdenum enterprises faced severe losses, with many suspending quotations. Price pressure transmitted from end-users upstream to the ore side, and coupled with low operating rates in the ferromolybdenum industry, dragged the molybdenum raw material market into a loose decline.
This week, the molybdenum chemical market was mainly in the doldrums. Affected by the sharp drop in the raw material market, molybdenum chemical product quotations fell. SMM ammonium molybdate closed at 233,000-235,000 yuan/mt, cumulative monthly decline 25,500 yuan/mt; SMM heptamolybdate closed at 237,000-241,000 yuan/mt, cumulative monthly decline 24,500 yuan/mt. Molybdenum chemical demand was sluggish, and with the cost side collapsing, the market operated mainly under pressure.
Overall, after previous high fluctuations, the molybdenum market placed significant pressure on downstream molybdenum demand. Entering Q4, downstream steel mills entered the traditional off-season, and combined with interference from overseas low-priced molybdenum raw materials, multiple bearish factors concentrated, dragging down molybdenum market prices. The short-term market is expected to remain mainly weak, with subsequent attention on mine shipments and steel mill operating rates.
